As a deterministic and large-scale component in the 5g industrial chain, antenna manufacturers are expected to reach a performance peak in the past two years.
The application of antenna includes base station side and terminal side. No matter in base station or terminal, antenna is the middleware of signal transmission and reception. The performance of antenna directly affects the quality of communication. The mobile phone terminal antenna is used for transmitting and receiving radio waves. It is connected to the RF front end and is the starting point of the receiving channel and the end point of the transmitting channel. The base station antenna is similar to the terminal antenna and is also a signal converter, but the base station antenna connects the base station equipment and the end user.
Young people may not know about the antenna, but older friends are no stranger to it. The antenna of the "big brother" mobile phone, which was popular all over the country in those years, was exposed outside and extended for a long time. However, with the continuous progress of technology, the antenna became shorter and shorter, and finally directly hidden inside the mobile phone, so we can't see the antenna of the mobile phone now, But it's always there.
According to the statistics of the daily financial report, from 2013 to 2014, when 4G construction began, the scale of the domestic antenna market increased rapidly, while from 2020 to 2021, when 5g is coming, this growth elasticity will be further amplified. From the current development situation, the number of 5g base stations will be 1.5-2 times that of 4G, and the monomer value of 5g base station antenna may be 3-4 times that of 4G. If the two items are superimposed, the total size of antenna in 5g period may be 4.5-8 times that of 4G, corresponding to the global market of RMB 500-900 billion, taking the middle value as 700 billion.
1. Expansion of Antenna Market in 5g Era
There are two reasons for the high growth of antennas in the 5g era: the increase of 5g mobile phone penetration and the increase of the number of antennas caused by the increase of 5g frequency band, corresponding to the terminal antenna and base station antenna respectively. According to the prediction of BCC research, the global antenna market will be US $22.5 billion and the smart antenna market will be US $7.6 billion in 2021; According to yole development's prediction, the terminal antenna market space will increase from US $2.23 billion in 2018 to US $3.08 billion in 2022, with a compound growth rate of 8.4%.
The increase in both volume and price is the fundamental reason why the investment scale of antenna in 5g era will be significantly higher than that in 4G era.
In terms of the antenna characteristics of the 5g base station, the number of 5g antenna channels will be increased compared with 4G. The 4G period will be dominated by 4 channels, while the 5g period will be expanded to 64 channels. In 5g macro base station, AAU equipment is applicable to intermediate frequency band and millimeter wave band. In sub-6g band, AAU equipment includes 64t64r, 32t32r and 16t16r. 64t64r AAU equipment has 64 transceiver channels, which are mostly deployed in 5g data hot spots such as dense urban areas, and 32 transceiver channels or 16 transceiver channels are used in other areas.
In addition, the 5g base station antenna needs to meet the characteristics of high-frequency, high-speed and large flow transmission. The process difficulty and antenna material are improved, and the value of antenna monomer is improved. The cost of 4G base station antenna is about 800-1000 yuan / pair, and the cost of 5g base station antenna is expected to be 3000-4000 yuan / pair. The synchronous improvement of the number of 5g base stations and the value of 5g base station antenna units will boost the significant growth of 5g base station antenna investment.
By the end of 2019, the number of 4G base stations had reached 5.44 million, accounting for 64.7% of the total number of base stations; The number of 5g base stations in China exceeds 130000. The market expects that the number of 5g base stations in China will be about 700000 in 2020. The epidemic has slowed down the global 5g construction. 2021 will be the peak year of 5g base station construction.
At the terminal level, the increase of 5g mobile phone functions promotes the increase of internal function modules of the mobile phone. In addition, the increase of mobile phone applications greatly improves the power consumption of 5g mobile phone. In order to meet daily needs, the battery volume must be expanded, but the overall volume of the mobile phone is limited. Therefore, how to realize the reasonable layout of internal space is a big problem for 5g mobile phone.
In order to cooperate with the rationalization of 5g mobile phone design, the design layout of internal antenna is more difficult and the preparation complexity is improved. At the same time, the trend of internal module integration is more and more clear, and the value of internal antenna of mobile phone will naturally rise. On the other hand, the number of antennas carried by 5g mobile phones will also increase significantly. The number of 4G mobile phone antennas is 2-4, including 2 communication antennas, 1 wifi antenna and 1 GPS antenna. The number of 5g mobile phone antennas is expected to be 8-10, including 2 4G communication antennas, 4 5g communication antennas, 2 WiFi antennas, 1 GPS antenna, etc.
2. Domestic antenna manufacturers
Before 2G, China's base station antenna industry was almost blank, the base station construction was almost 100% dependent on imports, and the antenna unit price was high. In May 2000, the Ministry of Information Industry issued the technical conditions for base station antenna of mobile communication system, marking the real start of China's base station antenna industry. Subsequently, China's base station antenna industry entered the domestic substitution period. From 2002 to 2004, some provincial operators tried to unpack and purchase antennas, and domestic antennas began to have a little market, but the proportion was only single digits.
Since 2005, the antenna equipment of the three major operators has been unpacked and purchased centrally across the country. China's base station antenna industry has developed rapidly. By 2009, the market share of domestic antennas in the domestic market exceeded 85%, but the global base station antenna market is still occupied by Catherine of Germany and CommScope Andrew of the United States, accounting for 79%, Patent barriers have seriously hindered the entry of domestic antennas into the international market. After breaking the patent barrier in the following years, China's base station antenna industry developed rapidly. The shipment volume of Chinese antenna manufacturers reached more than 60% of the global market share, becoming a real base station antenna power.
According to the daily financial report, in the field of base station antenna, domestic enterprises represented by Huawei have obvious market advantages. According to the report released by ejl wireless research, the top companies in the global base station antenna market share are Huawei (32%), Jingxin communication (13%), CommScope (12%), Moby development (8%), ACE (8%), Tongyu communication (7%), kaishilin (5%), etc.
The competition for 5g antennas has just begun. In the later stage of 5g construction, millimeter wave band antennas different from the existing 5g band will appear. Here, the millimeter wave band refers to 24GHz to 52ghz, while the existing 5g band is below 6GHz. At that time, new schemes will still be born. The test of enterprises may not be a temporary lead, but a long-term R & D ability. However, from the current situation, Huawei's leading position is difficult to shake.
The market share of Chinese enterprises in the terminal antenna market is better than that of RF devices. Xinwei communication, shuobaid and Lixun precision all occupy a certain proportion of the market share.
Lixun precision terminal antenna has three business modules: traditional antenna, LCP antenna and LTCC process. LCP antenna module products are provided to North American customers. Xinwei communication is mainly engaged in RF components business, including antennas, wireless charging modules, emcemi devices and connectors at mobile terminals and base stations. At present, it has the design and manufacturing capacity of LCP, MPI and other flexible transmission line products, and is accelerating production capacity construction. The company's LCP transmission line products have also been used for the connection between Qualcomm 5g baseband chip and 5g millimeter wave antenna module. The industrial structure of shuobaid is more complete, and its antenna business includes terminal antenna, base station antenna and vehicle antenna. Among them, terminal antenna is the product with the largest profit contribution of the company, mainly including mobile phone antenna, laptop antenna and wearable device antenna.
However, it also needs to be objectively recognized that American manufacturer Amphenol Amphenol and Japanese manufacturer Murata Murata still take the lead in the production of terminal antenna with high-end technology. Amphenol's LCP antenna module has entered the apple mobile phone industry chain, accounting for about 65% of the supplier share in 2018; Murata's LCP antenna used to supply iphonex and has been commercialized in terms of millimeter wave antenna module.
After the epidemic subsides, 5g construction will be accelerated in 2020, and the proposal of "new infrastructure" will push 5g infrastructure to the peak. According to Gartner's forecast, the global 5g infrastructure revenue will increase by 89% from US $2.2 billion in 2019 to US $6.8 billion in 2021. Therefore, according to the daily financial report, as a deterministic and large-scale component in the 5g industrial chain, antenna manufacturers are expected to reach a performance peak in the past two years.
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